Incentivise reformulation of HFSS

We estimated that this policy would reduce the prevalence of adult UK obesity rates by approximately 1%

Estimating the per-person impact

We estimated that this policy would reduce average daily calorie intake by approximately 4 kcal per person

• We used data from Robinson et al. (2022) meta-analysis when modelling, which examined the effects of manipulating food energy density on daily energy intake. Studies included in the meta-analysis tended to manipulate energy density by either altering macronutrient content (by reducing %kcals from fat) or by holding macronutrient content by increasing water content, for example. 
• Results from the meta-analysis showed that when participants consumed lower energy dense foods at all eating occasions in a day, their energy intake reduced by 709 fewer calories per day.
• For estimating the reduction in calories per person per day, we first need to estimate the number of products available in the retailer and out of home sectors from where all food purchases are made. Then, based on the cost of reformulation, estimate the number of products that could potentially be reformulated. Then using the evidence we estimate the reduction in energy intake of an individual.
• To estimate the number of products in the in-home sector, we use the same data that was used for Nesta’s report – The future of food: opportunities to improve health through reformulation. The data from 2021 covers over 36 million transactions for purchases of all food and drinks brought into the home by a sample of 30,000 households living in Great Britain, alongside demographic and socio-economic background data.
• Similarly, to estimate the number of products in the out of home sector, we used a dataset that was built by Nesta as part of how eating out contributes to people’s diets? This dataset was developed with the OOH subset of Kantar’s Worldpanel service to capture purchases of food and non-alcoholic beverages for OOH consumption in 2021. Nesta’s analysis uses a subset of this data for the period 1st April 2021 to 31st December 2021 for individuals aged 18 and above, at its core, combined with nutritional data(for more information see Nesta’s report linked above). We use the same data for our analysis.
• Using these two datasets we estimate that there are approximately 97,000 unique products in the retail sector and around 50,000 unique products in the OOH sector that could be subject to reduction in energy density via reformulation.
• We estimated the average cost to reformulate a single product to be £500,000, and a £500 million grant would lead to reformulation of about 1,000 products. We calculated, therefore, that a £500 million grant would lead to the reformulation of 0.7% of all eligible products in the retail and OOH sector.
• Reformulating 0.7% of all the products would lead to a proportional reduction in daily energy intake by 4.96 kcals (0.7% of 709 kcals). It is useful to highlight that this estimate is an approximation assuming that all products are single portions for an individual. However, it is likely that some of the products are sharing portions for more than one person.
• It is important to consider potential compensation effects, where individuals may adjust their energy intake from other sources to compensate for the reduced energy density in reformulated HFSS products. Please see our technical appendix to understand more about how we estimate compensation effects. We adjust for a compensation effect at 23% of the reduction in calorie intake. 
• The magnitude of the impact may vary across different age groups, socioeconomic backgrounds, and dietary patterns. Additionally, the effectiveness of the policy will depend on factors such as the extent of reformulation achieved by businesses, consumer acceptance of reformulated HFSS products, and the overall dietary habits of the population.
• Note: All analysis and interpretation was conducted independently of Kantar Worldpanel. Kantar has not independently verified the findings.

Changes in the prevalence of people living with obesity

Table 1 shows the percentage reduction of adults moving from BMI ≥ 30 or BMI percentile ≥ 85 into a healthier BMI category following introduction of this policy (five- year follow up).

After five years of policy implementation, approximately 1% of adults in England and Scotland would move to a healthier BMI category as a result of this policy. 

We are in the process of modelling the impact for children and will update findings upon completion. 

Cost over 5 years

We estimated that this policy would cost the governments approximately £500 million over five years

We commissioned HealthLumen to estimate the cost of the policy to both industry and governments over a five-year period. View the full report.  

Table 2 below shows a breakdown of costs. The direct costs to the governments are estimated at £500 million. The costs to the food industry are not applicable here.

Total annual benefit

We estimated that this policy would have an annual benefit of approximately £0.7 billion

Using analysis conducted by the Tony Blair Institute and Frontier Economics we estimate this policy would result in benefits of approximately £0.7 billion per year. Approximately two-thirds of this saving would benefit individuals (via quality-adjusted life years, and informal social care). The remaining third relates to savings that benefit the state via NHS treatment costs, productivity and formal social care. See our Methods page for more information about the cost breakdowns.

Impact on disease incidence

We commissioned HealthLumen to report disease incidence avoided if the policy were implemented. These estimates do not represent the total health benefits. The specific diseases selected are those where there is good evidence that living with obesity is associated with the development of the disease. 

Table 3 presents a summary of incidence avoided (rounded to the nearest 100).