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Last updated: 10/09/2024

Increase referrals to total diet replacement programmes

Everyone with a BMI of 30 or above is offered a free referral to a total diet replacement programme via primary care.

  • High impact on obesity

    A percentage estimate of how much the policy would reduce national obesity rates

    • Relative reduction in obesity prevalence: 5%
  • Very high evidence quality

    A rating of the strength of evidence, accounting for both reliability and validity of the evidence

    • Reliability and validity rating: 5/5
  • High cost to governments

    Cost to UK and devolved governments over 5 years

    • Costs to governments over 5 years: £1.9bn
    • Benefit to governments per year: £3bn

What is the policy?

This policy would ensure that everyone with a BMI of 30 or above is offered a referral to a weight management programme with a total diet replacement component. These programmes offer eligible participants low calorie, total diet replacement products including soups and shakes consisting of 800-900 kcals a day for a period of twelve weeks. For the first twelve weeks, all normal food is replaced with these products. Following this, participants receive support to reintroduce food to help maintain weight loss achieved in the first 12 weeks. 

Recent context

In the UK, different tiers of weight management services cover different activities. Definitions vary locally, with tier 1 typically covering universal services (primary care delivered education), tier 2 covering community-based support, tier 3 covering specialist weight management services, and tier 4 covering surgical interventions including bariatric surgery. Behavioural weight management programmes fall under tier 2 services.

National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance on the prevention and management of overweight and obesity in adults sets out the guidelines for referral to weight management services in the UK. Existing guidance recommends that individuals be referred to a total diet replacement programme if they are aged 18-65, have a BMI of 27 or above (25 or above for some ethnic groups), and who have had a diagnosis of diabetes. The current policy would extend the eligibility so that adults living with a BMI of 30 or greater (regardless of diabetes status) would be eligible to receive a free referral to a total diet replacement programme.

Weight management services are devolved in Wales and included in the Healthy Weight, Healthy Wales whole-system approach to healthy weight. The programme funds a national team within Public Health Wales and systems officers within Health Board Public Health Teams. Funding comes from the Welsh Government and individual Health Boards. 

In Scotland, responsibility for the operation and availability of weight management services is assigned to regional Health Boards. Scotland’s Diet and Healthy Weight Delivery Plan considers access to efficient weight management services to be a core outcome to tackling obesity and overweight in Scotland.

Considerations for implementation

There is high local variation of weight management services across the UK due to the funding and commissioning landscape. The ability of a local authority to extend access will depend on funding available (for public or private services), service capacity (including workforce), and digital infrastructure (which may boost local capacity).

Estimating the population impact

We estimated that this policy would reduce the prevalence of adult UK obesity rates by approximately 5%


Estimating the per-person impact

We estimated that this policy would reduce average body weight by approximately 5.6kg for those taking up total diet replacement.

We use evidence from the DROPLET trial (Astbury et al. 2018, Astbury et al. 2021) which showed that individuals participating in a total diet replacement programme lose 10.7kg after one year and regain about 4.4kg over the subsequent two years. 


Estimating the population reach

Data from the DROPLET trial shows that only 13% of eligible patients offered total diet replacement through primary care take it up. Hence in our analytical model we applied the impacts to 13% of adults living with a BMI of 30 or above. We assume that if people declined an offer in year 1, then they would decline any subsequent offers over the modelling period.


Changes in the prevalence of people living with obesity

We find that as a result of this policy the percentage reduction in prevalence of obesity is approximately 5%. Table 1 shows the percentage of adults moving from BMI ≥ 30 into a healthier BMI category following the introduction of this programme.
 

Adults (England and Wales)Children (England and Wales)Adults (Scotland)Children (Scotland)
5%Not applicable5%Not applicable
Table 1. Approximate proportion of adults and children moving to a healthier BMI category

Cost and benefits

Cost over 5 years

We estimated that this policy would cost the governments approximately £1.9 billion over five years

We commissioned HealthLumen to estimate the cost of the policy to both industry and governments over a five-year period.

Table 2 below shows a breakdown of costs. The direct costs to the governments is estimated at approximately £1.5 billion over five years. This is based on the estimate of the per-patient cost of a total diet replacement programme being approximately £950.  Based on our modelling, this cost would treat approximately 300,00 additional people. In our costs we do not include infrastructure costs, and hence these figures may be underestimated.

Group affectedCostHorizonDetail
Costs
Government£1.9bnOne-offImplementing and delivering the programme
Table 2. Summary of costs


Total annual benefit

We estimated that this policy would have an annual benefit of approximately £3 billion

Using analysis conducted by the Tony Blair Institute and Frontier Economics we estimate this policy would result in benefits of approximately £3 billion per year. Approximately two-thirds of this saving would benefit individuals (via quality-adjusted life years, and informal social care). The remaining third relates to savings that benefit the state via NHS treatment costs, productivity and formal social care. See our Methods page for more information about the cost breakdowns. 


Impact on disease incidence

We commissioned HealthLumen to report disease incidence avoided if the policy were implemented. These estimates do not represent the total health benefits.

Table 3 presents a summary of disease incidence avoided (rounded to the nearest 100). The specific diseases selected are those where there is good evidence that living with obesity is associated with the development of the disease.

DiseaseIncidence avoided
Type 2 diabetesNot statistically significant
Hypertension11,400
Coronary heart diseaseNot statistically significant
Colorectal cancer1,100
Gall bladder disease22,500
Ovarian cancerNot statistically significant
Stroke2,700
Liver cancerNot statistically significant
DepressionNot statistically significant
Musculoskeletal disease3,700
Table 3. Disease incidence avoided following five years of policy implementation

Behind the averages: impact on inequalities

Increased take up of weight management services across the population could have a positive effect on inequalities. 

Evidence suggests some groups are more likely to take up weight management services than others. There are few widely implemented weight management programmes designed for specific population groups, meaning cultural and content applicability of existing programmes is likely to vary by population group. People living in deprived areas and with complex additional needs such as disabilities, along with men, are less likely to engage and more likely to drop out. This has the potential to widen health inequalities. Co-designing services with underserved groups to better meet their needs may be an effective way to counter this.

Rating the strength of evidence

We asked experts working in the fields of obesity, food, and health research to rate the strength of the evidence base for each policy, taking into account both reliability (size and consistency) and validity (quality and content) of the evidence. Policies were rated on a Likert scale of 1–5 (none, limited, medium, strong, and very strong evidence base). The Blueprint Expert Advisory Group rated the evidence base for TDR programmes to be Very Strong.

Large scale roll-out of pharmacological interventions

Extend access to pharmacotherapy so that approximately 3 million people (BMI≥30) receive Semaglutide each year